Here Comes Week 3
I want chaos. I want mayhem. I want all-out brawls, confusion, and despair from fan bases across the country. I want it ALL—as long as my picks win.
I’m confident in my picks this week. I’ve got a bunch of wide-margin spreads that I usually despise betting on for favorites, but I like the odds this time. Let’s dive in and see if I’ll become the college football betting GOAT or the dunce of the week. Let’s get into it!
PRIME PICKS:Â
4 Oregon @ Northwestern — ORE -27.5
Oregon has covered the spread in 9 of their last 15 games. They’re 17-9 against the spread as road favorites over the last 3 years. They absolutely obliterated Oklahoma State last week, and I don’t believe this team will have a look-ahead game this year. That’s not how Lanning has them wired. Although I’m aware how tough it is to play 11 AM kickoffs at Northwestern (only real ball knowers know), I just don’t see these Ducks going through the motions. They’ll come out ready to play. To solidify this pick: Northwestern has covered the spread in only 4 of their last 12 games. Give me the Ducks!
18 South Florida @ 5 Miami — USF +17.5
I know, I know. Anyone would be a fool to take USF this week. They can’t possibly keep this up, and Miami will remind them they’re G5. It’s too simple. It’s too easy. The spread is too big. But something about me? I don’t give a shit. These USF Bulls are back—it’s 2007 all over again. I don’t think they’ll win this matchup, but 17.5 is too many points. I think they’ll give Miami everything they’ve got and keep it close (close = within the spread).
USF has covered 5 of their last 7 away games, and Miami has only covered 6 of their last 14. Four of those 6 have come in their last 4 games. Something to consider.
Stats aside, I won’t overthink this. USF all the way. Shock the Nation!Â
16 Texas A&M @ 8 Notre Dame — UNDER 50.5
I’m so excited for this game. Both teams are in no position to lose—this is an absolute must-win for both programs. Last year, Notre Dame dominated in the trenches, and A&M will be looking for payback. I think A&M will improve this year, and Marcel Reed already looks like he’s taken a big step forward. But I think this game will be controlled by the defenses. Both offenses will rely heavily on the run. I expect a tough, close matchup where the difference is a field goal. Even if both teams are a collective 15-5 on the OVER in their last 10 games each, I don’t care. Notre Dame is 7-3 on the UNDER in their last 10 SEC matchups. Give me the under. I HATE POINTS.
Vanderbilt @ 11 South Carolina — Vandy +4.5
Another exciting matchup this week. Both teams are incredibly fun to watch, and I believe this one will go down to the wire.
LaNorris Sellers for South Carolina and Diego Pavia for Vandy are two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the game. Both teams have improved on both sides of the ball since last year.
Each team has covered exactly 9 of their last 13 games, and South Carolina’s 9 covers have come in their last 10.
But Vandy’s got that dog in ’em. Gimme the Commodores!
Minnesota @ California — Cal +2.5 & ML
After seeing Cal dismantle Oregon State in Week 1, I’m HIGH on them for the rest of the year. Their freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, is the next up-and-coming Hawaiian star in college football. His teammates look like studs—hungry to make Cal football a national contender. I’m serious about this Cal team, and before long, the rest of the nation will be too. Keep an eye on them this Saturday as the Golden Gophers come to town. Minnesota has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13, but they haven’t faced Tua reincarnated in those matchups. I think they’re in for a rude awakening. Taking both the points and the moneyline for Cal. DOG OF THE WEEK.
Texas State @ Arizona State — OVER 60.5
Guys, sound the alarm. My Cats are hot, and they’re coming for some Sun Devil ass this weekend. GJ has the offense rolling with the vanilla trio of Brad Jackson, Beau Sparks, and Lincoln Pare—these guys are ready to become household names. A team is always feared most when they’ve got three cold white boys. Arizona State got embarrassed last week, and I expect them to come out angry. I don’t expect my Cats to win, but I think both offenses will be flying, and the OVER will be surpassed early. Texas State has hit the OVER in 8 of their last 13, and ASU has hit it in 6 of their last 7. I LOVE POINTS.
Ohio @ 1 Ohio State — OSU -29.5
I really love large spreads this week, which I usually despise (as mentioned above). I just think some of these elite teams will handle business. No look-aheads, no problems.
Both teams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10, but I think OSU takes care of business this week. It’ll be too easy.
Oregon State @ 21 Texas Tech — ORST +23.5
Full disclosure: I stole this from Josh Pate’s Ramen Noodle Express and fell in love with it.
Classic look-ahead spot for Tech, who has Utah next week. Unlike Oregon and OSU mentioned above, I think Tech falls victim to the classic college football look-ahead.
Even though Oregon State has looked absolutely awful, I think they find a way to cover.
Tech is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 against the Pac-12, and Oregon State is on a 3-0 run ATS in season road openers. Let’s go BEAVS.
Good Luck, Have Fun…
Let’s have a great Week 3. Pray and hope for my picks—or fade me and you’ll probably get richer this weekend.
Regardless, have fun, stay safe, and enjoy the slate. Let’s get it!
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DISCLAIMER: Making picks each week is all about fun for me. It helps me dive deeper into the games, dig up fun and interesting statistics, and learn more about the players and teams. That said, do not place bets solely based on my opinion—especially if you do not have the funds to do so responsibly. Please visit https://www.ncpgambling.org if you have a gambling problem or addiction.