Week 2 is upon us…
It’s time for overreactions, to fully give up on your team, and to call for the job of your head coach, athletic director, and school president. It’s a beautiful time of year. And it’s a beautiful week to make some Prime Picks. Let’s get into it.
Illinois @ Duke — ILL -2.5
This line jumped out at me the moment I saw it, and I immediately wrote it down as a must-bet. No thinking needed. I believe Illinois is the real deal this year. I think they go in and dominate this Duke team.
Now, let’s be somewhat responsible and find some trends in Illinois’ favor:
Illinois has covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games.
Any other trend favors Duke:
Duke has covered in 8 of their last 13.
They’re 6–1 in their last 7 games against the Big Ten.
Illinois is 1–5 in their last 6 road openers.
Honestly? fuck your trends, bro. Illinois -2.5 is FREE. FIGHTING ILLINI.
Houston @ Rice — OVER 39.5
Straight up, no trends back this one up. Both teams have only hit the game total over twice in their last 13 games. But I cannot help myself — I always bet the over when the total is in the 30s. It’s a personal battle. It’s not responsible. I don’t care. Give me the over.
Western Kentucky @ Toledo — WKU +7.5
Trends:
Toledo is 0–3 against the spread in their last 3 games vs. C-USA.
Toledo is 10–4 ATS in their last 14 home openers.
WKU is 5–3 ATS in their last 8 matchups vs. the MAC.
That’s all I’ve got. Something screams at me that this game will be close, high-scoring, and exciting. I wish I had more stats to back it up, but this is another vibes pick. WKU +7.5 — let’s go.
San Jose State @ Texas — TEX -36.5
I’ve made a few picks based on vibes alone already, so why not give y’all another one.
Texas got absolutely embarrassed last week against Ohio State. Arch looked awful and held the offense back. The defense was solid, but it’s hard to win when your offense only puts up 7 points.
This week is a bounce-back week. Arch got his bad game out of the way, and now he’s pissed. He’s coming out guns a blazin’, and I expect the rest of the offense to follow suit. The defense will be lockdown per usual.
Also, San Jose State is 2–8 ATS in their last 10 games. Nothing personal — I just think Texas annihilates them after last week’s poor showing. They’re playing mad.
Miami (OH) @ Rutgers — M-OH +15.5
Miami (OH) is 8–2 ATS in their last 10 games. Rutgers just went toe-to-toe with Ohio and barely squeezed out a 34–31 win.
I don’t expect Miami (OH) to win, but I do expect them to keep it within 10 points. They’ll pester Rutgers and stay in it most of the game. 15.5 is too many points. Rutgers always keeps easy wins closer than they should be.
Give me Miami (OH). Maction, baby.
Ole Miss @ Kentucky — MISS -8.5
Let’s add one more pick that goes against the trends. Kentucky has had Lane Kiffin’s number since he took over at Ole Miss. They always keep it close — they even beat them last year.
Only one trend favors Ole Miss:
They’ve covered the spread in 9 of their last 14 games.
Now the bad trends:
Under Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss is 0–5 ATS in SEC openers.
Kentucky is 8–4 ATS in season openers.
The last 4 games between these two were decided by 3 points or fewer.
Now… I know Kentucky was a Prime Pick last week. I might’ve said I believed in them this year. And yes, they covered last week. But I take back everything I said. There’s no way Kentucky keeps this one close. They stink. Ole Miss by a billion.
Final Thoughts
This week’s Prime Picks are mostly vibes-based. Let’s hope I can trust my gut. Regardless, I’m fired up for this week and the wild slate ahead.
Thank you to everyone who took the time to read this. Don’t forget to sign up for our email list so you can be notified whenever a new blog post is published.
DISCLAIMER: Making picks each week is all about fun for me. It helps me dive deeper into the games, dig up fun and interesting statistics, and learn more about the players and teams. That said, do not place bets solely based on my opinion—especially if you do not have the funds to do so responsibly. Please visit https://www.ncpgambling.org if you have a gambling problem or addiction.