Labor Day Weekend. A wonderful three-day holiday created for American (and Canadian) workers. It’s one of the best holidays we have as Americans (and Canadians). This holiday was designed to give hard-working people an extra day to spend with their loved ones. It should be spent with your children, spouses, family, and beloved friends. It should be spent outdoors, enjoying the transition from summer to fall. This weekend is for us Americans (and Canadians) to truly enjoy and embrace what it means to be American (and Canadian).
With all that being said...
What better way to embrace being an American (not Canadian) than by watching AMERICAN FOOTBALL (NOT CANADIAN)? Send the wife and kids to the park. Turn your phone on Do Not Disturb. Throw all of your responsibilities out the window. It’s Week 1 of college football, baby. Thursday–Monday of college football insanity. Welcome to Week 1 of Prime Picks. Let’s get into it.
Prime Picks (Locked on 8/24:
UNLV @ SHSU – OVER 59.5 Not a lot of thought or stat studying went into this one. UNLV allowed 555 yards of offense to Idaho State in Week 0 and gave up 31 points. Sam Houston allowed 506 yards to Western Kentucky and 41 points. Both defenses have issues they need to address—and I don’t think they’ll fix them in a week. Both offenses feature dual-threat quarterbacks and a fair share of firepower. This should be a fun game, and I think the over is an easy bet.
CAL @ ORST – ORST -3.0 A few thoughts on this game: I love Maalik Murphy—great addition to Oregon State. Cal lost their star quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, to IU via the transfer portal. Cal has dropped 3 of their last 4 trips to Corvallis. Oregon State is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings with Cal. Both teams have some rebuilding to do, but I think ORST is in better shape. ORST -3.0 seemed too easy to me.
LSU @ CLEM – LSU +4.0 I’m nervous about this one, to be honest. I think both teams will have great seasons and are playoff hopefuls. The trends aren’t in either team’s favor, so I weighed my options:
Clemson: Against the SEC, the Tigers are 2-8 ATS. In season openers, they’re 2-6 ATS in their last 8.
LSU: We all know they’re horrible in season openers—0-5 in their last 5, both outright and ATS.
I think Brian Kelly and the Tigers get it done this time. I’m betting they break the trend, get the win, and obviously cover at +4.0. Don’t lose my trust, Brian Kelly.
NEB vs. CINCI (Neutral Site @ Arrowhead) – NEB -6.5 This is one of those “neutral site” games that will feel like a home game for one team—and that team is Nebraska. I’m big on Nebraska this year. Matt Rhule in Year 3 is always magical, and Dylan Raiola will be the real deal. The Cornhuskers have covered the last two season openers under Rhule; this Saturday, they’ll make it three in a row. I think Cinci is in a rebuild year and has a lot to figure out. Also, the Bearcats are 1-3 ATS against Rhule. Let’s take the Cornhuskers.
TOL @ UK – UK -7.5 Kentucky has won and covered the last four season openers. I think a lot of people are counting them out this year. Have you heard the name Zach Calzada? The Saban Slayer? Yeah, he’s running the show at Kentucky this year—and he’s coming for the Rockets of Toledo. I don’t have much to back this one up, I just think people are sleeping on Kentucky.
UTAH @ UCLA – UTAH -6.5 Utah is the real deal. Plain and simple. Their new QB, Devon Dampier, is going to be absolutely electric. And Nico ImaLeavin is more focused on dollars than winning football games. Utah is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups against the Bruins. In their last 10 season openers, the Bruins are 2-8 ATS. I think the line is too small—give me Utah all the way.
Let’s have a great Week 1, everybody. Week 0 was a great introduction to the season, but this week we are officially back. Happy Football Season to all who celebrate.
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DISCLAIMER: Making picks each week is all about fun for me. It helps me dive deeper into the games, dig up fun and interesting statistics, and learn more about the players and teams. That said, do not place bets solely based on my opinion—especially if you do not have the funds to do so responsibly. Please visit https://www.ncpgambling.org if you have a gambling problem or addiction.